************Replication File for Power, Signaling, and Credibility: Terrorist Group Alliances and the Bargaining Range for Peace*************

import excel "/Users/makaylawendland/Desktop FINAL Power, Signaling and Credibility- Terrorist Group Alliances and the Bargaining Range for Peace Data 09.11.2025.xlsx", sheet("Sheet1") firstrow

destring, replace

collapse (sum) TotalAttacks FullAgreement TotalPeaceAgreements PartialAgreement PeaceProcessAgreement AllianceNumberMaxLife (max) Insurgency Duration PeaceAgreementDummy Alliance0no1yes ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious Right StateSponsorship Americas Asia Europe MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack GDP PolityScore CINCscores UmbrellaAlliance Size, by(GroupID) 

************Table 2. Logit Regressions: Alliances and Peace Agreements***************

************Model 1****************
logit PeaceAgreementDummy Alliance0no1yes Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency, cluster(GroupID) 

************Model 2****************
logit PeaceAgreementDummy Alliance0no1yes Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores, cluster(GroupID) 

*************Model 3***************
logit PeaceAgreementDummy UmbrellaAlliance Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency, cluster(GroupID) 

*************Model 4***************
logit PeaceAgreementDummy UmbrellaAlliance Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores, cluster(GroupID)

************Table 3: Negative Binomial Regressions: Alliances and Total Peace Agreements*************************

************Model 1****************
nbreg TotalPeaceAgreements Alliance0no1yes Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency, cluster(GroupID) 

************Model 2****************
nbreg TotalPeaceAgreements Alliance0no1yes Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores, cluster(GroupID)  

***********Model 3*****************
nbreg TotalPeaceAgreements UmbrellaAlliance Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency, cluster(GroupID) 

***********Model 4*****************
nbreg TotalPeaceAgreements UmbrellaAlliance Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores, cluster(GroupID) 

*****************Table 4. Bilateral Alliances and Peace Agreements by Type*******************

*****************Model 1**********************
nbreg FullAgreement Alliance0no1yes Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency, cluster(GroupID)  

*****************Model 2***********************
nbreg FullAgreement Alliance0no1yes Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores, cluster(GroupID)

*****************Model 3***********************
nbreg PartialAgreement Alliance0no1yes Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency, cluster(GroupID) 

******************Model 4***********************
nbreg PartialAgreement Alliance0no1yes Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores, cluster(GroupID)

******************Model 5***********************
nbreg PeaceProcessAgreement Alliance0no1yes Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency, cluster(GroupID)

******************Model 6***********************
nbreg PeaceProcessAgreement Alliance0no1yes Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores, cluster(GroupID)

******************Table 5. Umbrella Alliances and Peace Agreements by Type****************************

*****************Model 1**********************
nbreg FullAgreement UmbrellaAlliance Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency, cluster(GroupID)  

*****************Model 2***********************
nbreg FullAgreement UmbrellaAlliance Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores, cluster(GroupID)

*****************Model 3***********************
nbreg PartialAgreement UmbrellaAlliance Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency, cluster(GroupID) 

******************Model 4***********************
nbreg PartialAgreement UmbrellaAlliance Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores, cluster(GroupID)

******************Model 5***********************
nbreg PeaceProcessAgreement UmbrellaAlliance Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency, cluster(GroupID)

******************Model 6***********************
nbreg PeaceProcessAgreement UmbrellaAlliance Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores, cluster(GroupID)

*****************Appendices**************************

*****************Appdendix B: Logit Regressions: Alliances and Peace Agreements with Group Size******************

*****************Model 1************************
logit PeaceAgreementDummy Alliance0no1yes Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency Size, cluster(GroupID)

*****************Model 2************************
logit PeaceAgreementDummy Alliance0no1yes Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores Size, cluster(GroupID)

*****************Model 3************************
logit PeaceAgreementDummy UmbrellaAlliance Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency Size, cluster(GroupID) 

*****************Model 4**************************
logit PeaceAgreementDummy UmbrellaAlliance Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores Size, cluster(GroupID) 

************Appendix C: Negative Binomial Regressions: Alliances and Total Peace Agreements with Size*************************

************Model 1****************
nbreg TotalPeaceAgreements Alliance0no1yes Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency Size, cluster(GroupID) 

************Model 2****************
nbreg TotalPeaceAgreements Alliance0no1yes Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores Size, cluster(GroupID)  

***********Model 3*****************
nbreg TotalPeaceAgreements UmbrellaAlliance Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency Size, cluster(GroupID) 

***********Model 4*****************
nbreg TotalPeaceAgreements UmbrellaAlliance Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores Size, cluster(GroupID) 

*****************Appendix D. Bilateral Alliances and Peace Agreements by Type with Size*******************

*****************Model 1**********************
nbreg FullAgreement Alliance0no1yes Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency Size, cluster(GroupID)  

*****************Model 2***********************
nbreg FullAgreement Alliance0no1yes Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores Size, cluster(GroupID)

*****************Model 3***********************
nbreg PartialAgreement Alliance0no1yes Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency Size, cluster(GroupID) 

******************Model 4***********************
nbreg PartialAgreement Alliance0no1yes Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores Size, cluster(GroupID)

******************Model 5***********************
nbreg PeaceProcessAgreement Alliance0no1yes Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency Size, cluster(GroupID)

******************Model 6***********************
nbreg PeaceProcessAgreement Alliance0no1yes Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores Size, cluster(GroupID)

******************Appendix E. Umbrella Alliances and Peace Agreements by Type with Size****************************

*****************Model 1**********************
nbreg FullAgreement UmbrellaAlliance Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency Size, cluster(GroupID)  

*****************Model 2***********************
nbreg FullAgreement UmbrellaAlliance Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores Size, cluster(GroupID)

*****************Model 3***********************
nbreg PartialAgreement UmbrellaAlliance Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency Size, cluster(GroupID) 

******************Model 4***********************
nbreg PartialAgreement UmbrellaAlliance Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores Size, cluster(GroupID)

******************Model 5***********************
nbreg PeaceProcessAgreement UmbrellaAlliance Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency Size, cluster(GroupID)

******************Model 6***********************
nbreg PeaceProcessAgreement UmbrellaAlliance Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores Size, cluster(GroupID)

******************Appendix F. Negative Binomial Regressions: Total Alliances and Total Peace Agreements****************************

*****************Model 1**********************
nbreg TotalPeaceAgreements AllianceNumberMaxLife Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency, cluster(GroupID)  

*****************Model 2***********************
nbreg TotalPeaceAgreements AllianceNumberMaxLife Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores, cluster(GroupID)

******************Appendix G. Total Alliances and Peace Agreements by Type****************************

*****************Model 1**********************
nbreg FullAgreement AllianceNumberMaxLife Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency, cluster(GroupID)  

*****************Model 2***********************
nbreg FullAgreement AllianceNumberMaxLife Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores, cluster(GroupID)

*****************Model 3***********************
nbreg PartialAgreement AllianceNumberMaxLife Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency, cluster(GroupID) 

******************Model 4***********************
nbreg PartialAgreement AllianceNumberMaxLife Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores, cluster(GroupID)

******************Model 5***********************
nbreg PeaceProcessAgreement AllianceNumberMaxLife Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency, cluster(GroupID)

******************Model 6***********************
nbreg PeaceProcessAgreement AllianceNumberMaxLife Duration ExternalBase Left Nationalist Religious StateSponsorship Americas Asia MiddleEast Africa TransnationalAttack TotalAttacks Insurgency GDP PolityScore CINCscores, cluster(GroupID)

end. 


